Predictive risk

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These maps have been developed from spatially explicit predictive risk models, generated from the survey data contained within the atlas, together with environmental factors (such as temperature and vegetation). They help describe how transmission may vary within countries, and can help inform decision-making in the absence of survey data.

Current predictive risk maps that are available through GAHI include those describing the environmental suitability for occurrence of LF across Africa, predicted prevalence of pre-control LF infection in sub-Saharan Africa and estimates of basic reproductive number (R0) for LF in sub-Saharan Africa. These maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.

  • Maps showing the environmental suitability for occurrence of LF can be used to delineate transmission limits of LF, and identify populations at risk of infection
  • Maps of prevalence of microfilaraemia and antigenemia can help define populations where prevalence exceeds the intervention threshold of 1% prevalence.
  • The developed map of R0 can be used to identify areas of higher transmission intensity where additional control efforts may be required to achieve the elimination of LF infection (i.e. implementing vector control or extending MDA rounds).

As the global LF community moves towards elimination, assembled survey maps together with model predictions can help track progress and increase the cost-effectiveness of surveillance activities post-control.

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