Predictive risk map
These show the predicted probability that prevalence is above theWHO intervention threshold across the country, thereby warranting mass treatment of all school-aged children.
The maps are the result of predictive models that include information on environmental factors (such as temperature and vegetation), on the spatial distribution of existing surveys, and also on when surveys were conducted. They not only describe the current distribution of STH and schistosome infections at all locations throughout the country, but also show how certain we can be that mass treatment is required. The predictive risk maps thus form the basis of the control planning maps.
For further technical information regarding the modelling approach, see the accompanying technical document.
For STH, the map shows the predicted probability that prevalence of STH infection exceeds 20%, thereby warranting mass deworming of all school-aged children. The predicted cumulative prevalence of STH (see insert) is calculated from the predicted prevalence of each species using simple probability, incorporating a simple correction factor allowing for associations between species. These maps also show which areas lie outside the stable limits of STH transmission, based on temperature and aridity.
- Inset shows the predicted cumulative prevalence of STH across the country.
Work is still in progress for schistosomiasis. Sign up to receive an alert when these maps become available.
Examples of predictive risk maps for STH in Nigeria, Congo and Kenya. Use the "Find a Map" toolbar to find maps for your country of interest